China's economy stumbles into a deflationary decade
China's economy will suffer a prolonged, decade-long deflationary slump rather than a swift recovery.
Bet timeline: 12 markets, first verdict Sep 9, 2026, last Jan 10, 2027
- People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
- August Inflation China - Annual, Sep 9, 2026 (in 23 days), still open
- China Annual Inflation 2026, Jan 10, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?, Oct 20, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro), Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Sep 9, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
China's CPI stays flat or negative (deflation) over the next year
This book backs
yes
≤0.2%August Inflation China - Annual8%- Between -0.4% and 0.0%China Annual Inflation 20263%
Markets last priced this at 6%
China's annual GDP growth falls below official targets / below 4%
This book backs
yes
Less than 3.4%China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?0%
Markets last priced this at 0%
China's property/real-estate crisis deepens further (e.g. more major developer defaults)
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
People's Bank of China cuts interest rates / reserve requirements further
This book backs
yes
DecreasePeople's Bank of China rate change by September 30?20%
Markets last priced this at 20%
Renminbi weakens further against the US dollar
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Chinese stock indices (CSI 300 / Hang Seng) underperform or decline
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
China's youth unemployment rate remains elevated or worsens
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
China's population decline continues / birth rate hits new lows
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
China's exports/trade surplus data disappoints amid weak global demand and tariffs
This book backs
yes
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?No11%
Markets last priced this at 11%
Domestic economic distress raises risk of social unrest or protest activity in China
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
China does not launch a major military action against Taiwan given internal economic constraints
This book backs
no
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No96%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No93%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 95%
China's AI/semiconductor sector growth is constrained by broader economic slowdown and export controls
This book backs
yes
Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?No73%
Markets last priced this at 73%
Capital flight from China boosts demand for Bitcoin/crypto as an alternative store of value
This book backs
yes
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Yes18%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?Yes2%
Markets last priced this at 17%
Weak Chinese demand drags down commodity prices (e.g. iron ore, copper, oil)
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Xi Jinping's leadership faces increased internal scrutiny or pressure amid prolonged economic malaise
This book backs
yes
Xi Jinping be the next leaderNext leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)2%
Markets last priced this at 2%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.9× · typically 2.1× · best case 17.3× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 18%. : around 23%.
Markets priced these landing together at around 3%. : around 7%.
Any 7 of the 12 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 7 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
12 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- geopolitics63%
- crypto21%
- economics7%
- monetary3%
- tech3%
- politics2%
- trade1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?
≤0.2%
Decrease
Between -0.4% and 0.0%
Less than 3.4%
Xi Jinping be the next leader
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 21%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 12 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own