China will win the AI race against US with the opensource model tacticv
Chinese AI labs will out-compete US labs by winning the open-source model strategy, eventually forcing US AI companies to change their approach.
Bet timeline: 10 markets, first verdict Oct 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2027
- Will a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Next Kimi K model released by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?, Oct 31, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
- Which bills will become law in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?, Jun 30, 2027 (in 10 months), still open
- Deepseek IPO by...?, Dec 31, 2027 (in 16 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Oct 31, 2026.
China will win the AI race against US with the opensource model tacticv eventually forcing the US companies to react
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
A Chinese open-source model (e.g. DeepSeek) tops a leading AI benchmark/leaderboard ahead of top US closed models31%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: DeepSeek or Qwen releases a model topping LMSYS/Chatbot Arena or similar benchmark
The best AI modelWill a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?10%
DeepSeekWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?7%- +4 more bets
Markets last priced this at 31%
OpenAI releases a new open-weight model as a direct competitive response to Chinese open-source pressure
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: OpenAI announces or ships a new open-weight model release
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Meta expands or continues its Llama open-source strategy, citing Chinese competition
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Meta ships a new Llama release explicitly framed against Chinese open models
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
US tightens AI chip export controls to China in response to Chinese open-source AI progress46%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: New Commerce Department rule restricting AI chip sales to China
AI-chip export licensingWhich bills will become law in 2026?46%
Markets last priced this at 46%
US government restricts or bans Chinese AI apps/models (e.g. DeepSeek) domestically24%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Federal or state ban on DeepSeek app usage on government devices or broader
DeepSeekWho will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?29%
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Yes14%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 24%
Chinese tech stocks (Alibaba, Baidu) rise on AI-driven optimism
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Alibaba or Baidu stock rallies on AI product news
No bet in this book covers this claim.
OpenAI's valuation or funding round reflects investor concern over open-source competitive pressure
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Reports of OpenAI funding round at valuation below prior expectations
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US-China trade negotiations explicitly include AI/tech provisions or tariffs tied to AI competition
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: New tariff or trade deal clause targeting AI/semiconductor trade
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
Taiwan/TSMC semiconductor tensions escalate as AI chip competition intensifies
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Major US-China friction event over TSMC or Taiwan chip supply
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Open-source AI models (any origin) surpass closed-source models in enterprise adoption share
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Industry survey shows open-weight models overtaking closed models in enterprise deployment
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.9× · typically 2× · best case 14.4× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 13%. : around 19%.
Markets priced these odds at around 10%. : around 33%.
Any 6 of the 10 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 6 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
10 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
The best AI model
Will a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?
AI-chip export licensing
Which bills will become law in 2026?
DeepSeek
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
DeepSeek
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
Next Kimi K model released by December 31, 2026?
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?
December 31, 2027
DeepSeek be the first company to
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 21%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 10 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own