Climate change is not real
The vault creator believes anthropogenic/catastrophic climate change is not real or is significantly overstated, and will bet against claims of accelerating climate crisis and against the success of climate mitigation efforts.
Bet timeline: 6 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026
- 2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?, Oct 1, 2026 (in 45 days), still open
- Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Natural Disaster in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- OPEC dissolves in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
Money back if its 4 biggest bets land. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
The current year will not be confirmed as the hottest year on record
This book backs
NO
Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?No61%
4th or lower2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?1%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 28%
Global average temperature will not breach the 1.5C pre-industrial threshold on a sustained basis
This book backs
NO
No bet in this book covers this claim.
The upcoming COP summit will fail to produce a new binding global emissions agreement
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Major signatories will miss their Paris Agreement emissions reduction targets
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Global oil and gas production will rise rather than decline
This book backs
YES
OPEC dissolves in 2026?No96%
Markets last priced this at 96%
Renewable energy's share of global electricity generation will grow slower than official projections
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
EV sales or adoption mandates will be missed, delayed, or weakened
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
The US will not adopt stricter EPA emissions regulations this term
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Federal carbon tax or cap-and-trade legislation will not pass in the US Congress
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Major economies will delay or abandon their net-zero 2050 commitments
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
ESG/climate-focused investment funds will underperform broader market indices
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Arctic sea ice extent will not hit a new record low
This book backs
NO
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Government subsidies for solar and wind power will be cut rather than expanded
This book backs
YES
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.1× · typically 1× · best case 5.3× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these landing together at around 39%. : around 44%.
Any 5 of the 6 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 5 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
6 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- energy87%
- climate13%
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
Will Phoenix be under an Extreme Heat Warning for 10+ days in August 2026?
4th or lower
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 87%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 6 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own