Emerging markets outperform the S&P for the rest of 2026
The thesis holds that emerging-market assets will deliver higher total returns than the S&P 500 for the remainder of 2026.
Bet timeline: 20 markets, first verdict Sep 1, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- China ballistic missile launch by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Bank of Brazil decision in September?, Sep 15, 2026 (in 29 days), still open
- Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?, Oct 29, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?, Oct 20, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
- Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?, Nov 30, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Fed Decision in September?, Sep 16, 2026 (in 30 days), still open
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?, Dec 9, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will USD/JPY hit 120 in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Fed rate hike in 2026?, Dec 9, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- People's Bank of China rate change by September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Modi out by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- USMCA extended in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. First verdict Sep 1, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
US Dollar Index (DXY) continues declining through Q4 2026, supporting capital flows into EM assets.
This book backs
Dollar weakens
What that looks like: DXY breaks below key support before October 2026
Low 120Will USD/JPY hit … in 2026?3%
Markets last priced this at 3%
Federal Reserve continues cutting interest rates at its September, October, or December 2026 meetings.
This book backs
Fed cuts rates
What that looks like: Fed cuts rates at September 2026 FOMC meeting
Fed rate hike in 2026?No55%
3.5%What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?8%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 30%
US-China trade tensions ease or tariffs are reduced in H2 2026, boosting EM trade flows.
This book backs
Tariffs reduced / trade deal reached
What that looks like: New US-China trade agreement announced before Q4 2026
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Yes89%
"India"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?21%- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 71%
Brazil's central bank cuts the Selic rate further in H2 2026, supporting Bovespa gains.
This book backs
Selic cut / Bovespa rises
What that looks like: BCB cuts Selic rate at next Copom meeting
Decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bpsBank of Brazil decision in September?83%
0.6% and 0.8%Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?16%
Markets last priced this at 76%
What confirms it
S&P 500 earnings growth slows or US GDP growth decelerates in H2 2026, capping US equity returns relative to EM.
This book backs
US growth/earnings slow
What that looks like: US Q3 2026 GDP print comes in below consensus
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?No65%
Markets last priced this at 65%
China's Hang Seng / CSI 300 posts strong gains through year-end 2026, given China's large weight in EM indices.
This book backs
Hang Seng / CSI 300 rises
What that looks like: Hang Seng Index up double digits YTD by December 2026
Between 4.6% and 4.9%China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?38%
DecreasePeople's Bank of China rate change by September 30?12%- +2 more bets
Markets last priced this at 50%
EM sovereign bond spreads (EMBI) narrow relative to US Treasuries through 2026, signaling capital inflows to EM.
This book backs
EM spreads narrow
What that looks like: JPMorgan EMBI spread tightens below prior-year average
No bet in this book covers this claim.
India's Nifty 50 outperforms US benchmarks through end of 2026.
This book backs
Nifty 50 outperforms
What that looks like: Nifty 50 sets new highs in Q4 2026
Modi out by December 31, 2026?No92%
Markets last priced this at 92%
Copper and industrial metals prices rise through late 2026, benefiting EM commodity exporters.
This book backs
Copper rises
What that looks like: Copper price sets new 2026 high
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Taiwan Semiconductor and Korean tech lead Asia/EM tech outperformance driven by AI capex.
This book backs
TSMC / Samsung rise
What that looks like: TSMC stock hits new all-time high in H2 2026
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
MSCI Emerging Markets Index outperforms the S&P 500 in total return for full-year 2026.
This book backs
EM index outperforms S&P 500
What that looks like: EEM YTD return exceeds SPY YTD return by December 2026
Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?No82%
Markets last priced this at 82%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.5× · typically 1.1× · best case 4.5× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these landing together at around 7%. : around 19%.
Markets priced these landing together at under 1%. : around 1%.
Any 13 of the 20 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 13 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
20 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- trade policy30%
- Brazil28%
- monetary policy17%
- China equities8%
- US equities (inverse channel)3%
- economics3%
- China monetary policy3%
- EM stability2%
- geopolitics2%
- India2%
- currency2%
Decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps
Bank of Brazil decision in September?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
Fed rate hike in 2026?
3.5%
What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
"India"
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Will MSCI downgrade Indonesia to Frontier Market status by November 30?
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
0.6% and 0.8%
Between 4.6% and 4.9%
Decrease
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026?
USMCA extended in 2026?
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
The Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps
Low 120
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 25%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 20 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own