Frontier AI models from leading labs will become available and deployed in Europe and Japan in the near term.
Bet timeline: 7 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026
- Gemini 4.0 released by...?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- Next Claude Opus released by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?, Oct 31, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which bills will become law in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.
Build your owneurope and japan will get frontier AI models soon
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
OpenAI releases a next-generation frontier model (e.g. GPT-5 or successor) with availability in the EU
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Google DeepMind launches a new frontier Gemini model available in Japan
This book backs
yes
September 30Gemini 4.0 released by...?23%- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?No32%
Markets last priced this at 24%
Anthropic expands Claude frontier model availability/enterprise deals in Europe
This book backs
yes
DecemberNext Claude Opus released by...?94%- Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?Yes91%
Markets last priced this at 92%
Mistral AI releases a model that matches frontier US lab performance
This book backs
yes
Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?Yes5%
Markets last priced this at 5%
EU AI Act implementation is delayed or eased, easing frontier model deployment in the bloc
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US eases export controls on advanced AI chips to Japan and allied nations
This book backs
yes
AI-chip export licensingWhich bills will become law in 2026?48%
Markets last priced this at 48%
SoftBank increases its stake or investment commitment in OpenAI
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
NVIDIA announces a major AI infrastructure/data center deal in Japan or the EU
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Japan's government advances a national frontier-AI partnership (e.g. with OpenAI/Microsoft)
This book backs
yes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
EU and US reach a formal AI cooperation or trade agreement covering advanced models
This book backs
yes
"European Union"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?7%
Markets last priced this at 7%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 1× · typically 1.9× · best case 4.4× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 23%. : around 32%.
Markets priced these landing together at around 11%. : around 17%.
Any 4 of the 7 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 4 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
7 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- tech/ai57%
- geopolitics37%
- politics6%
September 30
Gemini 4.0 released by...?
AI-chip export licensing
Which bills will become law in 2026?
"European Union"
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by December 31, 2026?
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?
Will Mistral have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?
December
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 37%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 7 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own