ZEIT.FINANCE

GLP over GPT

The worldview predicts that the peptide/GLP-1 drug industry will become a bigger business than the artificial intelligence industry.

Potential upside
+575%
Payout6.7×
per $1 on the 9 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds24%
what the market priced those 9 at when this was saved
11betsfirst verdictOct 7, 2026in 6 days
+7

Bet timeline: 11 markets, first verdict Oct 7, 2026, last Jul 1, 2027

  • FDA approves Retatrutide this year?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • AI bubble burst in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?, Jul 1, 2027 (in 9 months), still open
  • FDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?, Oct 7, 2026 (in 6 days), still open
  • Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • Which companies will be acquired before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 3 months), still open

Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Oct 7, 2026.

Build your own

peptides will be a bigger biz then ai

Loading performance…

What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. Global GLP-1/obesity drug market revenue surpasses the AI industry's revenue by 203019%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • Viking TherapeuticsWhich companies will be acquired before 2027?21%
    • Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?Yes13%

    Markets last priced this at 19%

  2. Eli Lilly's market capitalization exceeds Nvidia's market capitalization

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  3. Novo Nordisk stock outperforms leading AI-sector stocks over the year

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  4. AI stocks suffer a major correction / bubble burst30%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • AI bubble burst in 2026?Yes15%
    • Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?No90%

    Markets last priced this at 30%

  5. OpenAI's valuation surpasses $1 trillion9%at save

    This book backs

    NO

    • Less than $1TWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?10%
    • Less than $1.25TAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap6%

    Markets last priced this at 9%

  6. Nvidia stock hits a new all-time high this year11%at save

    This book backs

    NO

    • Less than $4.00TNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?11%

    Markets last priced this at 11%

  7. FDA approves an oral GLP-1 pill (oral semaglutide) for weight loss

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  8. FDA bans or sharply restricts compounded semaglutide/tirzepatide

    This book backs

    NO

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  9. A new peptide drug (e.g. retatrutide) receives FDA approval3%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • FDA approves Retatrutide this year?Yes3%

    Markets last priced this at 3%

  10. Medicare expands coverage for GLP-1 weight-loss drugs14%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?Yes14%

    Markets last priced this at 14%

  11. A major AI lab publicly claims an AGI milestone this year91%at save

    This book backs

    NO

    • OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?No91%

    Markets last priced this at 91%

  12. Research peptide BPC-157 gains formal legal/regulatory approval for medical use56%at save

    This book backs

    YES

    • DecemberFDA moves BPC-157 to Category 1 by…?56%

    Markets last priced this at 56%

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 6 of these 11 outcomes occur →≈4×per $1
Stake back at 6 of 11

Worst case 1.6× · typically 4× · best case 8.1× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 1 of 11this bet landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 15%. : around 49%.

Doubled · 2 of 11these 2 bets landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 3%. : around 14%.

Any 6 of the 11 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 6 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

11 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

+575%11 bets

Less than $4.00T

Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?

17%9.5×

Less than $1T

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

17%9.9×

Viking Therapeutics

Which companies will be acquired before 2027?

17%4.9×

AI bubble burst in 2026?

17%6.8×
Below a flat split

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

5.0%38.5×

Eli Lilly licenses Peptron’s SmartDepot by October 7?

5.0%8×

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

5.0%1.1×

December

5.0%1.8×

Less than $1.25T

4.9%16.7×

Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?

4.5%1.1×

Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company?

2.1%7.1×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 17%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 11 bets, and how each is sized.

Think something different? Price it.

Build your own
GLP over GPT | ZEIT.FINANCE