Interest rates stay higher for longer and gold keeps running
This worldview predicts that central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, will keep interest rates elevated for longer than markets expect, and that gold prices will continue rising as a result.
Bet timeline: 20 markets, first verdict Aug 26, 2026, last Jan 1, 2027
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Fed Decision in September?, Sep 16, 2026 (in 30 days), still open
- Fed decisions (Jul–Oct), Oct 28, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
- Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- August Inflation US - Annual, Sep 11, 2026 (in 25 days), still open
- What will Gold (GC) hit $5,000 by end of December?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
- Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit 6.75% in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- August Inflation US - Monthly, Sep 11, 2026 (in 25 days), still open
- What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 15 days), still open
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Core PCE MoM - July 2026, Aug 26, 2026 (in 9 days), still open
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?, Dec 9, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026, Sep 11, 2026 (in 25 days), still open
- How high will inflation get in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. First verdict Aug 26, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
The Federal Reserve holds rates steady (no cut) at its next FOMC meeting
This book backs
Rates held / no cut
No change in Fed interest ratesFed Decision in September?75%
Pause–Pause–PauseFed decisions (Jul–Oct)58%
Markets last priced this at 67%
The Fed funds rate remains above current levels through year-end rather than falling sharply
This book backs
Rate stays elevated
No Fed rate cutsHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?85%
Stay above 2.5%Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair94%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 77%
Gold sets a new all-time high price
This book backs
YES, gold hits new high
High $5,000What will Gold (GC) hit … by end of December?43%
GoldBitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 202619%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 35%
Silver price also rises significantly, tracking gold
This book backs
YES, silver rises
High $68What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in August 2026?62%
Markets last priced this at 62%
US CPI inflation stays above the Fed's 2% target
This book backs
YES, inflation elevated
4.5%How high will inflation get in 2026?18%
3.4%August Inflation US - Annual38%- +3 more bets
Markets last priced this at 29%
S&P 500 experiences a correction or decline tied to sustained high rates
This book backs
YES, decline/correction
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Bitcoin underperforms gold as a store-of-value hedge
This book backs
Bitcoin underperforms / declines
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?No83%
December 31Bitcoin all time high by …?5%
Markets last priced this at 80%
30-year mortgage rates remain elevated rather than falling
This book backs
YES, mortgage rates stay high
High 6.75%Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit … in 2026?83%
Markets last priced this at 83%
US Dollar Index (DXY) stays strong / rises
This book backs
YES, dollar strong
No bet in this book covers this claim.
10-year Treasury yield stays above current elevated levels
This book backs
YES, yields stay high
5.0%How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?32%
2.0%How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?2%
Markets last priced this at 29%
US economy enters or shows signs of recession due to prolonged tight policy
This book backs
YES, recession risk materializes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Fed Chair resists political pressure (e.g. from Trump) to cut rates quickly
This book backs
Fed remains hawkish / independent
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?No79%
Markets last priced this at 79%
Central banks (e.g. China, Russia) continue accumulating gold reserves
This book backs
YES, continued gold buying
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.6× · typically 1× · best case 2.2× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these landing together at around 5%. : around 18%.
Markets priced these landing together at under 1%. : around 1%.
Any 14 of the 20 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 14 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
20 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- monetary policy29%
- commodities29%
- economics21%
- crypto12%
- housing3%
- bonds3%
- politics3%
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
No change in Fed interest rates
Fed Decision in September?
High $5,000
What will Gold (GC) hit … by end of December?
Gold
Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026
4.5%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
Pause–Pause–Pause
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
High $4,500
What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
No Fed rate cuts
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
3.4%
Increase by 0.3%
0.3%
Stay above 2.5%
High $68
High 6.75%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
0.2%
5.0%
4.0%
December 31
2.0%
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 12%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 20 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own