LLM IQ has topped. They will not be much smarter. But they will now be
LLM cognitive capability (raw intelligence) has plateaued and will not improve much further, but models will become progressively cheaper, faster, and more narrowly specialized.
Bet timeline: 13 markets, first verdict Sep 30, 2026, last Jul 1, 2027
- Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- AI bubble burst in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 38 days), still open
- Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?, Jul 1, 2027 (in 10 months), still open
- Will DeepSeek be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 38 days), still open
- Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit $40B by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 38 days), still open
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Sep 30, 2026.
LLM IQ has topped. They will not be much smarter. But they will now be progressively faster and cheaper and highlys specialized
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
The next flagship model release (e.g. GPT-5.x/GPT-6) will not show a large leap in reasoning benchmarks over its predecessor5%at save
This book backs
NO
What that looks like: Reviewers/benchmarks call new flagship release 'incremental' not 'leap'
1540Will any AI model reach … Overall Arena Score by September 30?5%
Markets last priced this at 5%
Per-token/API inference cost for frontier-tier models continues to fall sharply84%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Major lab cuts API price per token by >50% year-over-year
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?No92%
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 by December 31, 2026?Yes77%
Markets last priced this at 84%
Labs emphasize cheap/fast small-model variants (mini, flash, turbo) over raw capability flagships
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: New 'mini'/'flash'-class model release optimized for cost/latency, not benchmark scores
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
No LLM will pass a rigorous general-intelligence benchmark (e.g. ARC-AGI-2) at a human-competitive level within the period46%at save
This book backs
NO
What that looks like: ARC-AGI-2 leaderboard remains far below human-level score
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?No21%
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No72%
Markets last priced this at 46%
China narrows the AI gap with the US via cheap, efficient, specialized models rather than needing frontier-IQ breakthroughs29%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: A Chinese lab (e.g. DeepSeek) tops cost-efficiency or open-weight leaderboards
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Yes48%
Will DeepSeek be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?Yes1%
Markets last priced this at 29%
AI-driven job displacement continues in narrow, cost-sensitive tasks (support, coding assist) even without AGI-level intelligence
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Company cites AI automation for layoffs in a cost-sensitive function
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
No major lab formally declares AGI achieved
This book backs
NO
What that looks like: No OpenAI/DeepMind/Anthropic announcement of AGI attainment
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Specialized/narrow models (coding agents, math solvers) proliferate and outperform generalist frontier models in their niche
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: A narrow specialized model beats GPT/Claude flagship on a domain-specific leaderboard
No bet in this book covers this claim.
AI infrastructure capital expenditure growth (data centers, chips) decelerates as capability gains fail to justify spend
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Nvidia or hyperscaler guidance shows AI capex growth slowing quarter-over-quarter
No bet in this book covers this claim.
AI-sector equity valuations undergo a correction as 'AI bubble' narrative takes hold19%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: AI-heavy index or basket falls >20% from highs on growth-disappointment narrative
Less than $1TWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?9%
Less than $4.00TNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?13%- +3 more bets
Markets last priced this at 19%
Existential/AGI-risk regulation urgency fades; policy focus shifts to deployment, jobs, and cost rather than superintelligence risk90%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Major AI bill/executive order framed around jobs/deployment rather than existential risk
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?No90%
Markets last priced this at 90%
AI-compute-narrative crypto tokens underperform as exponential-capability story loses steam
This book backs
NO
What that looks like: AI-linked crypto tokens underperform Bitcoin over the period
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.4× · typically 1.9× · best case 8.9× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 13%. : around 27%.
Markets priced these odds at around 9%. : around 23%.
Any 10 of the 13 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 10 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
13 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Less than $4.00T
Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
Less than $1T
What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Will Perplexity's valuation hit $40B by December 31?
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 by December 31, 2026?
Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Will DeepSeek be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?
1540
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 19%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 13 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own