Nuclear energy makes a massive comeback and uranium rips
Nuclear power undergoes a major global resurgence in build-out and policy support, driving uranium prices sharply higher.
Bet timeline: 3 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
A major tech company (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) signs a new nuclear power purchase agreement for data centers
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: New hyperscaler-nuclear power deal announced
No bet in this book covers this claim.
NRC grants a construction/operating license to a small modular reactor (SMR) project
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: NRC issues SMR design certification or COL
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US enforcement of the ban on Russian enriched uranium imports tightens global supply
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: US Treasury/Commerce enforces Russian uranium import restriction without new waivers
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Trump administration executive order fast-tracks NRC licensing timelines
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: NRC announces streamlined licensing rule under new EO
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
A new large-scale US nuclear reactor construction project is approved and begins
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: NRC approves construction permit for a new large reactor
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes14%
Markets last priced this at 14%
The Three Mile Island (Crane Clean Energy Center) restart comes online on schedule
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Crane Clean Energy Center resumes commercial operation
No bet in this book covers this claim.
EU formally classifies nuclear as green/sustainable under its taxonomy expansion
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: EU Commission ruling expands nuclear green classification
No bet in this book covers this claim.
China approves a record number of new nuclear reactors in a single year
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: China's National Energy Administration approves new reactor batch
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Japan restarts additional idled nuclear reactors
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Japan NRA approves restart of another reactor unit
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A major uranium mining expansion (Kazatomprom or new mine) is announced to meet demand
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Kazatomprom raises production guidance
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
Uranium spot price surpasses $100/lb
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Spot uranium price print crosses $100/lb
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Oklo deploys or receives licensing approval for its first commercial reactor
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Oklo announces first reactor licensing milestone
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Cameco stock reaches a new multi-year high
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Cameco share price sets new 52-week high
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 2× · typically 4.1× · best case 5.6× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 25%. : around 36%.
Markets priced these odds at around 25%. : around 36%.
Any 2 of the 3 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 2 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
3 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 95%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 3 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own