ZEIT.FINANCE

The AI arms race turns hot and the US and China clash over Taiwan

The worldview predicts escalating US-China strategic and AI competition culminating in a direct military clash over Taiwan.

Potential upside
+863%
Payout9.6×
per $1 on the 10 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds17%
what the market priced those 10 at when this was saved
13betsfirst verdictAug 31, 2026in 14 days
+9

Bet timeline: 13 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Jan 1, 2027

  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • China x Japan military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • China x Philippines military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Which bills will become law in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Second-best AI Lab end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
  • Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Anduril's valuation hit $200B by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open

Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.

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What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. China launches a military invasion of Taiwan

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes4%

    Markets last priced this at 4%

  2. China imposes a naval blockade or quarantine on Taiwan

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?Yes5%

    Markets last priced this at 5%

  3. US and Chinese military forces engage in direct armed conflict

    This book backs

    YES

    • China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes7%

    Markets last priced this at 7%

  4. US deploys troops or military assets to defend Taiwan

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  5. A major military incident occurs in the South China Sea

    This book backs

    YES

    • China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Yes34%

    Markets last priced this at 34%

  6. Japan is drawn into a Taiwan conflict via its US alliance

    This book backs

    YES

    • China x Japan military clash before 2027?Yes9%

    Markets last priced this at 9%

  7. North Korea takes opportunistic military action amid US-China tension

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  8. US further tightens chip/AI export controls on China

    This book backs

    YES

    • Export-control chip securityWhich bills will become law in 2026?29%
    • Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?Yes28%

    Markets last priced this at 28%

  9. Nvidia faces new restrictions on AI chip sales to China

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  10. China achieves a major AGI or frontier AI capability milestone

    This book backs

    YES

    • The best AI modelWill a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?9%
    • AlibabaWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?13%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 16%

  11. TSMC operations are disrupted or its stock drops sharply due to conflict risk

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?Yes14%

    Markets last priced this at 14%

  12. US-China trade war escalates with new tariffs

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  13. US defense/military spending budget rises significantly

    This book backs

    YES

    • High $200BWill Anduril's valuation hit … by December 31?8%

    Markets last priced this at 8%

  14. Bitcoin sees a sharp selloff amid war/risk-off shock

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes3%

    Markets last priced this at 3%

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 7 of these 13 outcomes occur →≈6.1×per $1
Stake back at 6 of 13

Worst case 1.7× · typically 6.1× · best case 8.9× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 1 of 13this bet landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 10%. : around 24%.

Doubled · 1 of 13this bet landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 5%. : around 47%.

Any 6 of the 13 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 6 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

13 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

Stake split by domain
+863%13 bets
  • geopolitics48%
  • technology45%
  • economics6%
  • crypto1%

Export-control chip security

Which bills will become law in 2026?

21%3.5×

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

13%19.6×

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

12%14.3×

The best AI model

Will a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?

11%11.1×

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

11%11.8×

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

10%3×

Alibaba

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

9.4%8×
Below a flat split

Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?

3.0%7.4×

Alibaba

3.0%1.9×

High $200B

3.0%12.5×

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2.0%26.7×

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

<1%31.7×

Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?

<1%3.6×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 21%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 13 bets, and how each is sized.

Think something different? Price it.

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