The AI datacenter buildout overwhelms American power grids
The buildout of AI datacenters will grow electricity demand faster than the US grid can supply, straining capacity, prices, and reliability.
Bet timeline: 10 markets, first verdict Aug 26, 2026, last Jan 31, 2027
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?, Oct 1, 2026 (in 45 days), still open
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center Revenue be above $90B?, Aug 26, 2026 (in 9 days), still open
- Will Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- How high will inflation get in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US economic state at the end of 2026?, Jan 31, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit $2.0T by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 26, 2026.
Build your ownWhat has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
PJM Interconnection capacity auction clears at a record or near-record high price due to data center load growth
This book backs
YES record capacity price
What that looks like: PJM base residual auction result announced at new record clearing price
No bet in this book covers this claim.
NERC reliability assessment flags elevated blackout/shortfall risk for a US region due to load growth outpacing supply
This book backs
YES elevated reliability risk flagged
What that looks like: NERC seasonal reliability assessment names elevated risk region citing data center load
TexasWill there be a power grid emergency before October 1?44%
Markets last priced this at 44%
Local communities or states impose moratoriums or restrictions on new data center construction citing grid strain
This book backs
YES moratorium/restriction enacted
What that looks like: A county or state government passes a data center construction moratorium or restriction
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?Yes67%
Markets last priced this at 67%
What confirms it
US electricity demand growth accelerates materially above historical trend by 2026-2027, driven by data centers
This book backs
YES demand growth exceeds trend
What that looks like: EIA or grid operator reports record summer/winter peak electricity demand
Will Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?Yes14%
Markets last priced this at 14%
Nuclear plant restart projects (e.g. Three Mile Island / Crane Clean Energy Center) proceed on schedule to power data centers
This book backs
YES restart proceeds
What that looks like: Regulatory or utility milestone confirms restart timeline holds
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Natural gas turbine order backlogs and new gas-fired power plant announcements grow to meet data center demand
This book backs
YES gas buildout accelerates
What that looks like: Major turbine maker (GE Vernova, Siemens Energy) reports extended order backlog tied to data centers
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Rising electricity prices become a visible contributor to US CPI inflation readings
This book backs
YES electricity prices push CPI up
What that looks like: BLS CPI report shows electricity price component rising faster than headline CPI
4.5%How high will inflation get in 2026?17%
OverheatingUS economic state at the end of 2026?38%
Markets last priced this at 18%
Federal or state permitting reform legislation advances to speed transmission line and power plant construction
This book backs
YES permitting reform advances
What that looks like: Congress or a state legislature passes or advances a permitting reform bill citing grid capacity
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
Major hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta) continue raising AI/datacenter capex guidance despite power constraints
This book backs
YES capex guidance raised
What that looks like: A hyperscaler earnings call raises annual capex guidance citing AI infrastructure
High $2.0TWill Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?69%
$90BWill NVIDIA (NVDA) Q2 Data Center Revenue be above …?42%
Markets last priced this at 67%
Utilities with heavy data center exposure (Vistra, Constellation, Talen) outperform the broader utility sector
This book backs
YES outperformance
What that looks like: Vistra or Constellation stock outperforms the Utilities Select Sector index over the quarter
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Small modular reactor (SMR) projects (Oklo, X-energy) secure new funding or utility agreements tied to data center power demand
This book backs
YES SMR project advances
What that looks like: Oklo or X-energy announces a new power purchase agreement or funding round with a tech/data center firm
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes14%
Markets last priced this at 14%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.4× · typically 1× · best case 3.6× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 17%. : around 26%.
Markets priced these odds at around 17%. : around 26%.
Any 9 of the 10 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 9 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
10 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
- tech44%
- economics43%
- energy9%
- policy3%
- markets1%
High $2.0T
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?
4.5%
How high will inflation get in 2026?
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?
Will Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
Overheating
$90B
Texas
Less than $4.00T
Between $1.50 and $2.00
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 40%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 10 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own