The bullmarket for crypto will return and peak in november 2026. Almost
The thesis predicts a crypto bull market rallying to a peak around November 2026 (with Bitcoin itself failing to set a new all-time high, implying altcoins/ETH lead instead), occurring alongside a decline in AI valuations and frontier capability progress as models trend smaller, cheaper, more efficient, and more open-source.
Bet timeline: 18 markets, first verdict Aug 21, 2026, last Jan 1, 2027
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Ethereum all time high by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Fed Decision in September?, Sep 16, 2026 (in 27 days), still open
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit $500B by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?, Dec 9, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Bitcoin ETF Flows on August 21?, Aug 21, 2026 (in 1 day), still open
- Ethereum ETF Flows on August 21?, Aug 21, 2026 (in 1 day), still open
- What price will Solana hit in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Perplexity's valuation hit $40B by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 21, 2026.
The bullmarket for crypto will return and peak in november 2026. Almost symmetrically AI valuations and progress on the intelligence will decline. Models will become smaller and more efficient, and more open source. Bitocin will not reach a new ATH in 2026
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
Altcoin season (alts outperforming Bitcoin dominance) occurs in 202646%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Bitcoin dominance index falls below 50%
$70What price will Solana hit in 2026?51%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?$14033%
Markets last priced this at 46%
Federal Reserve continues cutting rates through late 2026, fueling a risk-asset rally40%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Fed cuts rates at the September or October 2026 FOMC meeting
NoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?51%
The Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bpsFed Decision in September?0%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 40%
No frontier AI lab ships a model seen as a major capability leap over its predecessor in 20269%at save
This book backs
NO
What that looks like: No major lab claims a new SOTA benchmark leap by Q4 2026
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes9%
Markets last priced this at 9%
A widely-reported AI-stock selloff/correction occurs in 2026
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: AI stock basket drops more than 10% in a single week, reported as a bubble bursting
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Spot crypto ETFs see sustained net inflows through Q4 202650%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Weekly spot Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF inflows stay positive through October 2026
Bitcoin ETF Flows on August 21?Positive50%
Ethereum ETF Flows on August 21?Positive50%
Markets last priced this at 50%
What confirms it
Total crypto market capitalization reaches a new all-time high by November 2026
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Total crypto market cap surpasses its prior all-time high before Dec 2026
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Bitcoin does NOT set a new all-time high price in 202672%at save
This book backs
NO
What that looks like: Bitcoin price stays below its prior ATH through Dec 31 2026
Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?No96%
December 31Bitcoin all time high by …?6%
Markets last priced this at 72%
Ethereum reaches a new all-time high price in 202620%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: ETH price closes above its prior all-time high
December 31Ethereum all time high by …?5%- Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?$3,00064%
Markets last priced this at 20%
AI-related equity valuations (e.g. Nvidia) decline meaningfully in 202615%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: Nvidia stock falls more than 20% from its 2026 highs
Less than $4.00TNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?11%
Low $500BWill OpenAI's valuation hit … by December 31?7%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 15%
An open-weight model becomes a top-ranked model on major leaderboards in 202623%at save
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: An open-weight model (e.g. DeepSeek, Llama) tops a major public leaderboard
DeepSeekWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?7%
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?Yes95%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 23%
A major hyperscaler cuts or slows AI data center capex growth in 2026
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: A hyperscaler announces reduced capex guidance citing AI ROI concerns
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
A small open model matches prior-generation frontier benchmark performance in 2026
This book backs
YES
What that looks like: A sub-10B parameter open model matches a prior frontier model's benchmark scores
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.6× · typically 6.8× · best case 23.7× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 11%. : around 49%.
Markets priced these odds at around 5%. : around 39%.
Any 11 of the 18 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 11 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
18 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Less than $4.00T
Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
December 31
Ethereum all time high by …?
No
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
Low $500B
Will OpenAI's valuation hit … by December 31?
$70
What price will Solana hit in 2026?
DeepSeek
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?
Bitcoin ETF Flows on August 21?
Ethereum ETF Flows on August 21?
Bitcoin more valuable than any company before 2027?
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?
Will Perplexity's valuation hit $40B by December 31?
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?
The Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps
≤1.0%
DeepSeek be the first company to
December 31
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 16%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 18 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own