ZEIT.FINANCE

The crypto bull run continues and Bitcoin breaks 150k

Cryptocurrency markets remain in a bull market and Bitcoin will surpass $150,000.

Potential upside
+385%
Payout4.9×
per $1 on the 8 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds40%
what the market priced those 8 at when this was saved
13betsfirst verdictDec 31, 2026in 4 months
+9

Bet timeline: 13 markets, first verdict Dec 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2028

  • Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Bitcoin all time high by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • US recession by end of 2026?, Jan 31, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Major CEX insolvent in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • What will be the next Fed rate change?, Dec 31, 2028 (in 28 months), still open
  • How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Stablecoins depeg before 2027?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open

Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Dec 31, 2026.

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What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. Bitcoin reaches $150,000 in 2026

    This book backs

    yes

    • Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?Yes3%
    • Reach $150,000What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?3%

    Markets last priced this at 3%

  2. Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high in 2026

    This book backs

    yes

    • December 31Bitcoin all time high by …?5%

    Markets last priced this at 5%

  3. Ethereum reaches a new all-time high in 2026

    This book backs

    yes

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  4. Total crypto market cap sets a new record

    This book backs

    yes

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  5. A spot altcoin ETF (e.g. Solana, XRP) is approved by the SEC

    This book backs

    yes

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  6. Dogecoin or another major altcoin rallies significantly

    This book backs

    yes

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  7. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, supporting risk assets

    This book backs

    yes

    • 1 Fed rate cutHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?10%
    • NoHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?48%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 30%

  8. No US recession in 2026, supporting continued risk-on sentiment

    This book backs

    no recession

    • US recession by end of 2026?No93%

    Markets last priced this at 93%

  9. A major public company adds Bitcoin to its treasury

    This book backs

    yes

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  10. Trump administration maintains crypto-friendly regulatory policy

    This book backs

    yes

    • Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes19%
    • Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?Yes21%
    • +2 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 18%

  11. US stock market (S&P 500) reaches new highs alongside crypto rally

    This book backs

    yes

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  12. No major crypto exchange collapse or fraud scandal disrupts the market

    This book backs

    no collapse

    • Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Yes5%
    • USDEStablecoins depeg before 2027?6%

    Markets last priced this at 5%

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 7 of these 13 outcomes occur →≈3.4×per $1
Stake back at 7 of 13

Worst case 1.4× · typically 3.4× · best case 5.5× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 1 of 13this bet landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 19%. : around 37%.

Doubled · 2 of 13these 2 bets landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 4%. : around 11%.

Any 7 of the 13 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 7 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

13 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

Stake split by domain
+385%13 bets
  • economics53%
  • politics39%
  • crypto7%
  • Other1%

US recession by end of 2026?

22%1.1×

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

19%5.4×

1 Fed rate cut

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

15%10.5×

No

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

14%2.1×

Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?

12%4.9×
Below a flat split

US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

5.9%10.5×

What will be the next Fed rate change?

3.0%2.1×

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

2.7%4.9×

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

2.0%31.7×

December 31

2.0%21.5×

Reach $150,000

2.0%32.3×

Major CEX insolvent in 2026?

<1%19.4×

USDE

<1%17.9×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 22%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 13 bets, and how each is sized.

Think something different? Price it.

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