The Middle East calms down and oil drifts lower through 2026
Middle Eastern conflicts de-escalate over 2026, and this calm pushes oil prices lower.
Bet timeline: 9 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?, Sep 1, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
- Will gas hit $3.25 by end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
- Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
Gaza ceasefire holds through 2026 without collapse into full-scale war36%at save
This book backs
ceasefire holds / YES
What that looks like: Gaza ceasefire renewed past initial phases without resumption of major combat
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Yes36%
Markets last priced this at 36%
No new direct Israel-Iran military strike exchange occurs in 202659%at save
This book backs
no strikes / de-escalation
What that looks like: No reported Israel-Iran missile or airstrike exchange through Q1 2026
December 31Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?62%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes3%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 59%
Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping decline substantially in 20266%at save
This book backs
attacks decline
What that looks like: Monthly count of Houthi attacks on shipping falls toward zero
40 or moreAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?6%
Markets last priced this at 6%
OPEC+ maintains or further raises production quotas through 2026
This book backs
output rises
What that looks like: OPEC+ announces a further output increase
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
Iran and the US/West reach a nuclear or sanctions-relief de-escalation understanding in 202613%at save
This book backs
YES, understanding reached
What that looks like: Iran-US indirect talks resume or a framework agreement is announced
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Yes13%
Markets last priced this at 13%
Syria stabilizes post-Assad without renewed major civil conflict in 2026
This book backs
stability holds
What that looks like: No major escalation of internal conflict reported in Syria
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Brent crude falls below $65/barrel at some point during 202615%at save
This book backs
Brent below $65
What that looks like: Brent settles below $65/barrel
Low $70What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Yes2%
Markets last priced this at 15%
US CPI inflation cools further, aided by falling energy prices
This book backs
inflation cools
What that looks like: Monthly CPI print shows a declining energy component
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
Saudi Arabia-Israel normalization talks advance or a deal is announced
This book backs
normalization advances
What that looks like: Formal Saudi-Israel normalization announcement
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US average gasoline price falls year-over-year in 20267%at save
This book backs
gas price lower
What that looks like: National average gasoline price below prior-year level
Low $3.25Will gas hit … by end of August?7%
Markets last priced this at 7%
Suez Canal / Red Sea shipping traffic recovers toward pre-crisis levels in 2026
This book backs
traffic recovers
What that looks like: Suez Canal transit volumes rise back toward 2023 levels
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Federal Reserve continues cutting interest rates through 2026
This book backs
rate cuts continue
What that looks like: Fed announces a further rate cut
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 1.5× · typically 3.7× · best case 8× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 17%. : around 34%.
Markets priced these odds at around 6%. : around 12%.
Any 5 of the 9 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 5 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
9 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
December 31
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
40 or more
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Low $70
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?
Low $3.25
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
December
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 25%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 9 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own