The rise of AI and doomscrolling will companies and services that favors humans
The rise of AI and compulsive social-media doomscrolling will provoke a countervailing surge in demand for companies and services built on genuine human interaction and real-world emotional connection.
Bet timeline: 11 markets, first verdict Dec 31, 2026, last Jun 30, 2027
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Will ByteDance's valuation hit $900B by December 31?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- AI bubble burst in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Which bills will become law in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?, Jun 30, 2027 (in 10 months), still open
- Will a Chinese company have a top one of the top 3 AI models AI model by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Dec 31, 2026.
The rise of AI and doomscrolling will companies and services that favors humans interactions and real world emotion.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
TikTok daily active usage / average US screen time continues rising through 202614%at save
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: New industry report shows record average daily screen time
High $900BWill ByteDance's valuation hit … by December 31?14%
Markets last priced this at 14%
A US state or federal government passes a law mandating age verification / restricting minors' social media use11%at save
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: State legislature or Congress passes minors social media law
Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?Yes11%
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?Yes12%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 11%
A major health body issues a new loneliness epidemic advisory or record-high loneliness report in 2026
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: Surgeon General or WHO-equivalent loneliness advisory published
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A US state passes a school cellphone ban law in 2026
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: State legislature passes or signs a school cellphone restriction bill
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What confirms it
A major AI lab ships a frontier model with a step-change capability jump in 20269%at save
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: New frontier model release announced with major benchmark jump
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?Yes9%
Markets last priced this at 9%
Live Nation or the concert/live-events industry reports record attendance or revenue in 2026
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: Live Nation quarterly earnings show record attendance
No bet in this book covers this claim.
An AI companion app such as Character.AI faces a lawsuit, ban, or regulatory action over user/mental-health harm46%at save
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: Lawsuit or state regulatory action filed against an AI companion app
The DEFIANCE ActWhich bills will become law in 2026?46%
Markets last priced this at 46%
AI-driven job displacement becomes a headline driver in a major US jobs report in 2026
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: BLS or major employer cites AI automation as layoff driver
No bet in this book covers this claim.
AI-generated deepfake content becomes a major flashpoint in the 2026 US midterm elections
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: Major deepfake controversy tied to a 2026 midterm race
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Dating apps like Bumble or Hinge report growth in IRL-meetup features or shift marketing toward in-person connection
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: Bumble/Hinge earnings call or product launch emphasizes IRL meetups
No bet in this book covers this claim.
What pays it off
Worldcoin/World ID human-verification adoption grows significantly (users, partnerships) in 2026
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: World ID verified-user count or major partnership milestone announced
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US-China AI competition intensifies with new export controls on AI chips in 202628%at save
This book backs
yes
What that looks like: New US export control rule targeting AI chips to China announced
DeepSeekWho will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?27%
One of the top 3 AI modelsWill a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?35%- +1 more bet
Markets last priced this at 28%
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 1.3× · typically 3.3× · best case 5× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these odds at around 12%. : around 17%.
Markets priced these landing together at around 5%. : around 15%.
Any 6 of the 11 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 6 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
11 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
DeepSeek
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026?
The DEFIANCE Act
Which bills will become law in 2026?
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
One of the top 3 AI models
Will a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?
US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
High $900B
Less than $4.00T
AI bubble burst in 2026?
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 21%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 11 bets, and how each is sized.
Think something different? Price it.
Build your own