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The Ukraine war ends with a negotiated settlement in 2026

The Russia-Ukraine war concludes in 2026 through a negotiated settlement rather than continued fighting or unconditional victory.

Potential upside
+532%
Payout6.3×
per $1 on the 11 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds43%
what the market priced those 11 at when this was saved
16betsfirst verdictOct 10, 2026in 54 days
+12

Bet timeline: 16 markets, first verdict Oct 10, 2026, last Dec 31, 2026

  • Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • NATO article 5 before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • NATO x Russia military clash by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026, Oct 10, 2026 (in 54 days), still open
  • NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Russia nuclear test by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Ukraine election called by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open

Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Oct 10, 2026.

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What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace agreement is signed in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • December 31Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?56%
    • Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Yes17%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 40%

  2. Ukraine formally cedes or freezes the current front line in Donbas/Crimea to Russian control as part of a settlement

    This book backs

    YES

    • Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?Yes5%

    Markets last priced this at 5%

  3. Ukraine is not granted NATO membership by the end of 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?Yes9%

    Markets last priced this at 9%

  4. US or EU sanctions on Russia are eased or lifted in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • "Russia"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?7%
    • December 31, 2026U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?10%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 17%

  5. Nord Stream gas flows to Europe resume following a settlement

    This book backs

    YES

    • Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?Yes3%

    Markets last priced this at 3%

  6. Brent crude oil price falls in 2026 on war de-escalation

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  7. Ukraine holds a presidential election in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    • Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?Yes7%
    • DecemberUkraine election called by...?13%

    Markets last priced this at 9%

  8. The ICC arrest warrant against Putin goes unenforced and prosecution stalls in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  9. Trump is nominated for or awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for brokering a Ukraine deal

    This book backs

    YES

    • Donald TrumpNobel Peace Prize Winner 20263%

    Markets last priced this at 3%

  10. European defense contractor stock (e.g. Rheinmetall) declines on de-escalation

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  11. Russia is readmitted to the G7/G8 or similar major diplomatic forum in 2026

    This book backs

    YES

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  12. NATO Article 5 is invoked due to a Russian attack on a member state in 2026

    This book backs

    NO

    • NATO article 5 before 2027?No94%

    Markets last priced this at 94%

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 8 of these 16 outcomes occur →≈3.2×per $1
Stake back at 8 of 16

Worst case 1.3× · typically 3.2× · best case 6.7× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 1 of 16this bet landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 9%. : around 34%.

Doubled · 2 of 16these 2 bets landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 1%. : around 9%.

Any 8 of the 16 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 8 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

16 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

Stake split by domain
+532%16 bets
  • geopolitics39%
  • security27%
  • economics17%
  • politics15%
  • energy2%

NATO article 5 before 2027?

23%1.1×

December 31

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

17%1.8×

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

9.9%5.9×

"Russia"

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

8.4%15.4×

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?

8.2%11.8×

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?

7.6%15.4×

December 31, 2026

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?

6.6%10.5×
Below a flat split

December

4.8%8×

December

2.2%3.8×

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?

2.1%1.1×

Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?

2.1%1.2×

Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?

2.0%20.4×

Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

2.0%39.2×

Donald Trump

2.0%39.2×

December

1.7%4.7×

December 31

<1%19×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 23%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 16 bets, and how each is sized.

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The Ukraine war ends with a negotiated settlement in 2026 | ZEIT.FINANCE