ZEIT.FINANCE

The US and China harden into rival AI and energy superpowers

The worldview holds that the US and China will increasingly harden into rival superpowers competing for dominance in artificial intelligence and energy, driving continued decoupling, export controls, and geopolitical tension between them.

Potential upside
+608%
Payout7.1×
per $1 on the 16 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds41%
what the market priced those 16 at when this was saved
18betsfirst verdictAug 31, 2026in 14 days
+14

Bet timeline: 18 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Jun 30, 2027

  • Which company has best AI model end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
  • Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
  • Will a Chinese company have a top … AI model by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Which bills will become law in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?, Sep 30, 2026 (in 44 days), still open
  • US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • US x China tariff agreement by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?, Jun 30, 2027 (in 10 months), still open
  • US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by…?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Largest Company end of August?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 14 days), still open
  • Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?, Oct 20, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
  • Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open

Money back if its biggest bet lands. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.

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What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. US frontier AI labs (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic) maintain a lead over Chinese labs (DeepSeek, Alibaba) on top model benchmarks

    This book backs

    US maintains lead

    • AnthropicWhich company has best AI model end of August?95%
    • Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?No96%
    • +2 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 87%

  2. US tightens export controls on advanced AI chips (e.g. Nvidia) to China

    This book backs

    controls tighten

    • Export-control chip securityWhich bills will become law in 2026?29%
    • At least $6.50TNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?15%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 38%

  3. China-Taiwan military tension escalates (blockade, incursion, or conflict short of full invasion)

    This book backs

    escalation occurs

    • China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes7%
    • Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?Yes6%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 6%

  4. US-China tariffs remain elevated or increase further

    This book backs

    tariffs increase/remain high

    • US x China tariff agreement by December 31?No12%
    • Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?Yes7%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 11%

  5. US crude oil and natural gas production hits new record highs

    This book backs

    record US production

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  6. China extends its lead in solar panel and battery manufacturing capacity

    This book backs

    China lead extends

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  7. TSMC's US (Arizona) fabs and CHIPS Act-funded projects proceed on schedule

    This book backs

    reshoring proceeds

    • Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?Yes15%

    Markets last priced this at 15%

  8. No comprehensive US-China trade/tech grand bargain is reached; decoupling continues

    This book backs

    no grand bargain

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  9. US dollar retains dominant global reserve-currency share over the yuan

    This book backs

    dollar dominance persists

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  10. US nuclear power capacity expands to meet AI data center demand

    This book backs

    nuclear buildout accelerates

    • US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Yes14%

    Markets last priced this at 14%

  11. US restricts Chinese-owned tech platforms or investment (e.g. TikTok-style actions) further

    This book backs

    restrictions expand

    • Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?Yes18%
    • US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?Yes13%

    Markets last priced this at 16%

  12. China's GDP growth rate falls below official targets, lagging US growth

    This book backs

    China growth undershoots

    • Between 4.6% and 4.9%China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?55%

    Markets last priced this at 54%

  13. US defense spending and Indo-Pacific military posture (bases, alliances) increase

    This book backs

    posture increases

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  14. US and China pursue diverging AI governance regimes rather than a joint international framework

    This book backs

    divergent regulation

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 9 of these 18 outcomes occur →≈3.1×per $1
Stake back at 9 of 18

Worst case 1× · typically 3.1× · best case 6.5× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 1 of 18this bet landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these odds at around 7%. : around 30%.

Doubled · 2 of 18these 2 bets landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 6%. : around 29%.

Any 9 of the 18 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 9 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

18 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

Stake split by domain
+608%18 bets
  • tech/AI38%
  • geopolitics33%
  • economics/trade13%
  • energy7%
  • tech/chips7%
  • economics2%

Anthropic

Which company has best AI model end of August?

25%1.1×

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

12%15.2×

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

10.0%17.7×

US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?

7.1%7.1×

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

6.9%8.6×

Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

6.1%5.6×
Below a flat split

Export-control chip security

5.0%3.5×

Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

3.4%14.3×

US Government removes public access to a major Chinese AI model in 2026?

3.0%8×

Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026?

3.0%1×

Anthropic

3.0%1.4×

At least $6.50T

2.7%6.9×

2026

2.4%6.1×

Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?

2.4%6.9×

Between 4.6% and 4.9%

2.3%1.8×

The best AI model

2.2%11.1×

NVIDIA

2.0%1.1×

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2.0%27×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 25%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 18 bets, and how each is sized.

Think something different? Price it.

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