the US is swinging more towards republicans
The thesis holds that political momentum in the United States is shifting toward the Republican Party across elected offices and policy outcomes.
Bet timeline: 17 markets, first verdict Aug 31, 2026, last Nov 7, 2028
- Blue tsunami in 2026?, Nov 30, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?, Nov 7, 2028 (in 27 months), still open
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Ohio Governor Election Winner, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Georgia Governor Election Winner, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- How many people will Trump deport in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 4 months), still open
- Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
- Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?, Aug 31, 2026 (in 13 days), still open
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. First verdict Aug 31, 2026.
What has to be true
Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.
What shows up first
Federal deportation numbers rise substantially under continued enforcement push9%at save
This book backs
deportations increase
What that looks like: DHS reports a new record or sharp rise in deportations
500-600kHow many people will Trump deport in 2026?9%
Markets last priced this at 9%
Federal agencies or major corporations further roll back DEI programs
This book backs
DEI rollback continues
What that looks like: Executive order or major company announces DEI program cuts
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Extension of 2017 tax cuts (TCJA) is passed into law
This book backs
tax cuts extended
What that looks like: Congress passes legislation extending TCJA provisions
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Broad tariffs on China and other trade partners remain in place or expand24%at save
This book backs
tariffs maintained/expanded
What that looks like: New tariff announcement or existing tariffs upheld by courts
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?Yes15%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?Yes42%
Markets last priced this at 24%
What confirms it
Republicans retain or expand their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms26%at save
This book backs
Republicans win House majority
What that looks like: November 2026 midterm results show GOP holding the House
R Senate, R HouseBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms13%
Blue tsunami in 2026?No57%
Markets last priced this at 26%
Republicans win or expand control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms
This book backs
Republicans win Senate majority
What that looks like: November 2026 midterm results show GOP Senate majority
No bet in this book covers this claim.
A Republican wins a marquee 2026 gubernatorial race in a swing state43%at save
This book backs
Republican governor wins
What that looks like: GOP flips or holds a contested governor's seat in Nov 2026
RepublicansOhio Governor Election Winner49%
RepublicansGeorgia Governor Election Winner38%
Markets last priced this at 43%
Transgender athletes are barred from women's sports at the Olympic or NCAA level
This book backs
ban enacted
What that looks like: IOC or NCAA adopts a policy excluding transgender women from female categories
No bet in this book covers this claim.
S&P 500 sets new highs amid Republican-aligned fiscal policy
This book backs
S&P 500 up
What that looks like: S&P 500 closes at a new all-time high
No bet in this book covers this claim.
US reduces military/financial aid to Ukraine or pushes a negotiated settlement41%at save
This book backs
aid reduced / peace deal pursued
What that looks like: White House announces cut in Ukraine aid or peace framework
December 31Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?45%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?No97%- +3 more bets
Markets last priced this at 41%
Republican-controlled Congress passes crypto-friendly market structure legislation20%at save
This book backs
pro-crypto bill passes
What that looks like: Congress passes a digital-asset market structure bill
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes20%
Markets last priced this at 20%
What pays it off
A Republican wins the 2028 presidential election42%at save
This book backs
Republican wins presidency
What that looks like: GOP nominee wins Electoral College in Nov 2028
RepublicansWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?42%
Markets last priced this at 42%
Supreme Court rules favorably on birthright citizenship restrictions
This book backs
restrictions upheld
What that looks like: SCOTUS ruling narrows birthright citizenship scope
No bet in this book covers this claim.
Courts or FDA uphold restrictions on mifepristone access56%at save
This book backs
restrictions upheld
What that looks like: Ruling or FDA action tightens mifepristone availability
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?No56%
Markets last priced this at 56%
Federal gun control legislation is blocked or gun rights are expanded
This book backs
gun rights expanded
What that looks like: Court strikes down a gun restriction or new pro-gun law passes
No bet in this book covers this claim.
If only some of it happens
Drag to see what a partial hit pays.
Worst case 0.9× · typically 2× · best case 5.4× per $1.
Pick which ones
What brings the money back
Markets priced these landing together at around 8%. : around 22%.
Markets priced these landing together at under 1%. : around 3%.
Any 10 of the 17 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 10 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.
Where the money sits
17 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.
Republicans
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
500-600k
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
December 31
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
R Senate, R House
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026?
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Republicans
Republicans
Before 2027
Blue tsunami in 2026?
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?
Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?
20%
Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 22%. The second rule marks an equal split.
All 17 bets, and how each is sized.
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