ZEIT.FINANCE

Trumps tariffs backfire and US inflation reaccelerates

Trump's tariff policy will prove economically counterproductive, causing US inflation to reaccelerate rather than subside.

Potential upside
+233%
Payout3.3×
per $1 on the 16 core bets · 1× = money back
Market odds52%
what the market priced those 16 at when this was saved
20betsfirst verdictAug 26, 2026in 9 days
+16

Bet timeline: 20 markets, first verdict Aug 26, 2026, last Jan 31, 2027

  • Fed Decision in September?, Sep 16, 2026 (in 30 days), still open
  • How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Fed decisions (Jul–Oct), Oct 28, 2026 (in 2 months), still open
  • Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?, Jan 31, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Core PCE MoM - July 2026, Aug 26, 2026 (in 9 days), still open
  • Core PCE YoY - July 2026, Aug 26, 2026 (in 9 days), still open
  • How high will inflation get in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • August Inflation US - Annual, Sep 11, 2026 (in 25 days), still open
  • Predicted Fed rate under each Fed Chair, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • US x China tariff agreement by December 31?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Speaker of the House after the midterms?, Jan 3, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?, Dec 9, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • ACA credits extended & House Winner 2026?, Nov 3, 2026 (in 3 months), still open
  • Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?, Jan 1, 2027 (in 5 months), still open
  • Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 in 2026?, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open
  • Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026, Dec 31, 2026 (in 4 months), still open

Money back if its 2 biggest bets land. First verdict Aug 26, 2026.

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What has to be true

Every claim this book is built on, and what has happened to it so far.

  1. US CPI inflation reaccelerates and comes in above expectations in the coming months

    This book backs

    YES - inflation rises

    • 4.5%How high will inflation get in 2026?18%
    • 3.5%August Inflation US - Annual16%
    • +1 more bet

    Markets last priced this at 15%

  2. US core inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target through year-end

    This book backs

    YES - inflation stays elevated

    • 3.6% or moreCore PCE YoY - July 20265%

    Markets last priced this at 5%

  3. The Federal Reserve delays or forgoes rate cuts due to tariff-driven inflation

    This book backs

    Fed holds/hikes rather than cuts

    • No change in Fed interest ratesFed Decision in September?75%
    • Pause–Pause–PauseFed decisions (Jul–Oct)58%
    • +3 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 70%

  4. Jerome Powell resists Trump's political pressure to cut rates aggressively

    This book backs

    Powell holds firm, no dovish pivot

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  5. Trump's tariffs on China remain elevated or escalate further rather than being rolled back

    This book backs

    YES - tariffs escalate/persist

    • US x China tariff agreement by December 31?No11%
    • Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?Yes40%

    Markets last priced this at 19%

  6. China (or other trade partners) imposes retaliatory tariffs, escalating the trade war

    This book backs

    YES - retaliation occurs

    No bet in this book covers this claim.

  7. US recession risk rises / GDP growth slows as tariffs and inflation squeeze the economy

    This book backs

    YES - growth slows / recession risk up

    • Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?Yes5%

    Markets last priced this at 5%

  8. US equity markets (S&P 500) decline amid tariff-driven inflation fears

    This book backs

    S&P 500 down

    • GoldBitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 202619%

    Markets last priced this at 19%

  9. Risk-off sentiment from reaccelerating inflation and a hawkish Fed pressures Bitcoin lower

    This book backs

    Bitcoin down

    • Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?No83%

    Markets last priced this at 83%

  10. Trump's approval rating declines as voters blame him for higher prices

    This book backs

    Trump approval falls

    • 35%How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?31%

    Markets last priced this at 30%

  11. Republicans lose House seats/majority in the 2026 midterms amid inflation backlash

    This book backs

    Republicans lose House

    • Hakeem JeffriesSpeaker of the House after the midterms?78%
    • DemocraticAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?87%
    • +2 more bets

    Markets last priced this at 74%

  12. The US Dollar index strengthens as the Fed is forced to stay higher-for-longer

    This book backs

    Dollar strengthens

    • Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 in 2026?Yes8%

    Markets last priced this at 8%

If only some of it happens

Drag to see what a partial hit pays.

If 10 of these 20 outcomes occur →≈1.6×per $1
Stake back at 11 of 20

Worst case 0.9× · typically 1.6× · best case 3.8× per $1.

Pick which ones
BetWhat it adds per $1

What brings the money back

Money back · 2 of 20these 2 bets landing returns the full stake.

Markets priced these landing together at around 6%. : around 18%.

Doubled · 6 of 20these 6 bets landing returns 2× the stake.

Markets priced these landing together at under 1%. : around 1%.

Any 11 of the 20 bets landing returns the stake, whichever 11 they are. The bets named above are the fastest route, not the only one.

Where the money sits

20 bets, ranked by how much of the stake each one holds.

Stake split by domain
+233%20 bets
  • monetary policy40%
  • economics21%
  • politics20%
  • trade9%
  • crypto4%
  • markets4%
  • monetary/currency2%

No change in Fed interest rates

Fed Decision in September?

12%1.3×

Pause–Pause–Pause

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

11%1.7×

No Fed rate cuts

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

11%1.2×

4.5%

How high will inflation get in 2026?

8.9%5.7×

35%

How low will Trump's approval rating go in 2026?

6.7%3.3×

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

6.6%8.8×

3.5%

August Inflation US - Annual

6.5%6.3×

Hakeem Jeffries

Speaker of the House after the midterms?

5.1%1.3×
Below a flat split

Democratic

4.3%1.2×

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

4.1%1.2×

Gold

3.7%5.4×

4.0%

3.4%4.1×

Stay above 2.5%

3.0%1.1×

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by December 31, 2026?

2.6%2.5×

Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 in 2026?

2.3%12.3×

Democratic

2.1%1.1×

Will the US economy be in stagflation at the end of 2026?

2.0%22.5×

0.4% or more

2.0%24.4×

3.6% or more

2.0%21.7×

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

1.5%16.7×

Bar length is share of the stake; the longest is 12%. The second rule marks an equal split.

All 20 bets, and how each is sized.

Think something different? Price it.

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Trumps tariffs backfire and US inflation reaccelerates | ZEIT.FINANCE